We took our headline number down. Here is why.
For nineteen days, from September 3 to September 22, our free inspection led with one number: how many of every hundred visitors had a reason to leave your site. On September 22 we took it down. This post is the record of what it was, what we found when we checked it, and what the report says instead.
What the number was
The inspection engine runs a few dozen checks on a page. Four of them were tied to research about people leaving websites: a slow page, a phone number that cannot be tapped, no way to get in touch, and English only in Southwest Florida.
Each failed check was paired with a published rate, and the rates were combined with a formula that counts each visitor as leaving at most once.
The arithmetic was sound. We wrote a whole page defending it, and that part still holds. A number is only as good as what goes into it, and that is where it failed.
What we found when we read the four studies
Until September 22 the engine cited each rate by name and year. That morning we read each study at its source and printed, beside every rate, who was asked or what was measured. Here is what that reading found.
The page is slow on a phone
- Rate we used
- 53%
- Source
- Google, "The need for mobile speed", 2016
- Who was asked or measured
- Google Analytics data from about 3,700 mobile websites worldwide, March 2016: a count of visits that ended, not a survey.
- What we found
- In 2019 a Google engineer wrote that it counted visits that ended after one page, some of them people who found what they came for, and that Google marketing no longer uses the figure.
The phone number cannot be tapped
- Rate we used
- 47%
- Source
- Google/Ipsos click-to-call study, 2013
- Who was asked or measured
- 3,000 smartphone owners in the United States who had recently bought something, in a 20-minute online survey, July 2013.
- What we found
- The question was about a phone number missing from a search result. Our check looks for a phone number on the page that cannot be tapped. A different condition.
No way to contact you on the page
- Rate we used
- 44%
- Source
- Huff Industrial Marketing, KoMarketing and BuyerZone, 2015
- Who was asked or measured
- 262 business buyers, mostly in the United States, surveyed in late 2014 about what makes them leave a seller's website.
- What we found
- What buyers said they do, not a count of anyone leaving. And it was the second answer, not the top one.
English only, in Southwest Florida
- Rate we used
- 11%
- Source
- U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey
- Who was asked or measured
- Everyone age five and over in Lee and Collier counties, from the Census household survey.
- What we found
- A count of who lives nearby, not of who left a site. It says a market is not reached. It cannot say a customer walked away.
None of the four was a fair rate to apply to the visitors of a business we had never studied. One was disowned by its own side. One measured a different thing from the thing we checked. One was what people said, not what they did. One was a map of who lives nearby.
What our own data said
A number that can only take a handful of values, and that gives more than half of all businesses the same one, is not much of a measurement. It looked like a measurement. It behaved like a label.
What the report says instead
The four checks stay. They are measurements: the engine timed your page, it looked for a tappable number, it looked for a way to reach you, and in Florida it looked for a Spanish version. What changed is the sentence under each one. It now says what was measured on your page today, and it attaches no borrowed number to it.
The Spanish check now says only what the Census can say. In Lee and Collier counties, about one resident in nine speaks Spanish at home and English less than very well. That is a market a page does not reach, not a count of anyone who left.
The report quotes that figure to every Florida page with no Spanish version. It is for those two counties only, and other Florida counties differ.
The report leads with the grade and the findings. We have run it on 78,807 real business websites (how we count them, and the public file).
How to weigh a number, ours or anyone's
- Ask who was asked. A rate from 262 business buyers is a fact about 262 business buyers. It says nothing about a taqueria's customers until somebody shows that it does.
- Ask whether the condition matches. A study about a phone number missing from a search result is not a study about a phone number on a page that cannot be tapped.
- Ask whether the source still stands. A figure its own author has withdrawn is not a figure you can look up.
- Ask what was watched. What people say they would do and what a count of visits shows are different kinds of evidence. A report should say which one it is holding.
We wrote those four questions after failing our own test on all four. They are printed here so you can hold us to them.
Your own report takes a few seconds. Run the free inspection: it leads with the grade, and every finding says what it looked at, so you can check it yourself.